Looks like GOPers and GOP leaning independents have chosen their anti-Trump. Latest American Research Group poll has overall:
Likely GOP Primary Voters:
Trump 27% Kasich 20%
The really curious thing is that it’s the older cohort that is late breaking for Kasich.
Likely GOP Primary Voters (50 and over):
Trump 25% Kasich 23%
Likely GOP Primary Voters (49 and under):
Trump 30% Kasich 16%
It may seem counter intuitive to see the older group going more to the center, but these under 50s are the people who have spent their entire political lives with Fox News and rabid talk radio who are carrying Trump. These people never knew a sane GOP, so don’t know the difference. Also, predictably, men (oy, men!).
Likely GOP Primary Voters (Male):
Trump 29% Kasich 19%
Likely GOP Primary Voters (Female):
Trump 24% Kasich 22%
This is pretty big actually for the establishment to keep one of theirs in the race with a viable toe hold versus Trump. After Iowa and NH things start to shake out and the other establishment types should be reading the writing on the wall and allowing their fundraisers and followers to coalesce around another. Presumably it will be be Kasich, based on this.
Unless this poll is an outlier. In that case nothing to be seen here. Ignore all.