Coming for Weeks, Results Still Shocked

So Brooklyn won the Democratic primary in NH and Queens took the Republican race. This Brooklyn/Queens rivalry feels very familiar to me. Only issue is I’m a Queensite who would clearly be rooting for the Brooklyn guy in that race. In fact, I’d be happy to cede Trump to Manhattan if they’d have him, doubt they would.

Capture

It was no big deal to call the winners. But the 22 point win by Bernie Sanders had to be very unsettling for the Clinton camp. Her last week had been pretty good and they thought they could keep it to 10 or so, but that did not happen. Until last night they had seemed pretty confident that going forward they had built in advantages (states with more minorities, states that don’t allow independents) but we’ll have to see if that optimism holds. All the success of the last two weeks in Sanders world will no doubt bleed over to Nevada, South Carolina and beyond. The firewall that the Clinton people thought they had, plus the double digit national polling lead, may prove to be a lot less formidable redoubts than they imagined. Already there were national polls that showed Sanders catching up.

On the GOPoopiepants side, for the record I called Trump (35.3%), Kasich (15.8%)(nailed it!) Rubio (10.5%) and Cruz (11.6%).  I got 1 and 2 right, but did not anticipate the depths of the Rubio collapse that no doubt buoyed Bush (11.1%) to his surprise 4th place finish and lifeline to South Carolina. Still, 11% is no great victory after spending a fortune and months of time concentrated in one or two states. Going forward nobody is going to be able to spend that much time and money in one place as things accelerate fast.  Just 10 days now to SC and NV (NV is split to 2 days: 2/20 for Dems, 2/23 for GOP).

Christie is at least smart enough to see his 7.5% means he’s done. Rubio and Bush will now engage in a game of chicken to see which disastrous campaign realizes its mortality first, allowing the other some oxygen.

It just gets more interesting.

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