The Blue Wave


There’s good evidence of a possible blue wave here in 2016.  Josh Marshall sees some internals on the ABC poll that were unusual and encouraging.

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

Trump’s awful debate performances, the Access Hollywood tape and the dozen women (and counting) accusing him of abuse may not have dimmed the enthusiasm of his ardent followers, but those that weren’t really on board to begin with were naturally deflated.  As we get closer and the polls shake out a ceiling of 44 seems very realistic.  All along I said any Republican likely had a ceiling of 45 due to the demographic diminution of Romney’s 2012 result of 47%.  All good.

Obviously the 5-12 point leads that Hillary has in various polls is pretty good.  Also, the present Five Thirty Eight call on the Dems taking the Senate is  73%.  The Clinton campaign is moving resources to those down ballot races and surrogates like President Obama are on the stump to support Dems at all levels.  In what would have been a likely decent Democratic year, the GOP threw their candidates a Trump shaped anvil, so it’s time to take advantage.

But this is just the tip of the Blue iceberg.

Democrats seem to have finally figured out that it’s not enough to win the presidency every 4 years.  Soon to be retired President Obama, Vice President Biden and probably First Lady Michelle Obama will be part of a plan to turn state houses blue in advance of the 2020 election.  2010 was a census year and the GOP had been, very smartly, working behind the scenes to turn state houses red so that they could redistrict to give the GOP an advantage. The results of that was that in states like MI, OH, PA and WI millions more people vote Democratic than republican and yet each of those states have larger Republican delegations in the House than Democratic. The fruits of redistricting are sweet and long lasting.

But 2020 will be a presidential year which advantages Democrats. So the opportunity is there to at the very least negate the gerrymandering that the GOP did in 2010. Take away that baked in advantage and level the playing field and the Dems have a chance at dominating D.C. for a decade.  At the very least it’s encouraging to hear Dems actually strategizing for 2018 and beyond.

Add this to the roiling schisms in the GOP, the aging of their hard core followers, the strong blue bent of the younger generation and the continuing browning of America, it’s entirely possible that we could be verging on a second Era of Good Feelings with one party domination for a decade.

We sure need that to get some shit done.  But okay, one election at a time.

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