In Contrast to Peter Daou – The Best Analysis of the Midwest I’ve Seen

The Myth of the Rust Belt: Trump didn’t flip working-class white voters. Hillary Clinton lost them.

Looking at the numbers, which are becoming clearer 3 plus weeks out, a huge number of Democrats in the Rust Belt 5 (Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) either stayed home or voted third party.  Some voted Trump too.  The fact is any one of a fairly small number of changes to these numbers in favor of Clinton would have changed everything.  But they didn’t happen. And Democrats need to figure out why and how to change it for 2018 and beyond.

Look at the numbers.

This data suggests that if the Democratic Party wants to win the Rust Belt, it should not go chasing after the white working-class men who voted for Trump. The party should spend its energy figuring out why Democrats lost millions of voters to some other candidate or to abstention. Exit polls do not collect information about why voters stay home. Perhaps it’s time someone asked them.



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