It’s really good business in the mainstream media to shit on the odds of Democrats winning anything while nobody ever went broke predicting that Trump will win re-election despite 60% of the country hating his guts.

So it’s always a surprise when a Democrat wins anything like Dr. Phil Miller winning a seat in Iowa by 10 points in a district that Trump won by 21.

In every special election so far, no matter how red the district the margins have compressed.  Not all of them compressed enough to give Dems the win, but those who ignore that trend, while wonderfully cynical and glib, are being counter intuitive.