After all that time concentrating on Iowa, so much time, so much money, so many corn dogs and butter cows – a much anticipated result DID… NOT… HAPPEN. And people went nuts.
Of course the caucus is undemocratic, an oddity where a teeny tiny, disappointingly small slice of Iowans actually show up for the main event after a year of candidates crisscrossing the state with rallies, town halls, diner visits, living room talks, etc. The ones that show up politely horse trade with each other so that their neighbor isn’t disappointed by their candidate’s lack of viability. Despite pundits corralling the candidates into the progressive or centrist pens, Iowans looked at them and judged them by who they liked, or who had Midwest values or not, whatever that is. So “my first choice is Amy, but she’s not viable so I’m going over to Bernie” can happen and did happen and pundit heads short circuited with all that Midwest political acumen.
Ultimately it was a year of foreplay with no release, AND THAT WILL DRIVE PEOPLE NUTS.
There will be results. They just may not be as dramatic as people hoped for because it will happen a day later with no cameras on it – an Iowan form of masturbation to finally clear up that nasty backup after a bad case of blue balls. If the results are what is believed, Biden and (certainly) Klobuchar are not viable (to use Iowa speak). But likely they’ll go to NH and have that proven again there.
So what happens in 2024. Likely nothing, although maybe, mercifully, they’ll add a primary to their beloved caucus (that can be totally ignored). Iowa will remain first because of all the money that gets spent in Iowa over the course of a year. Just think upon all the money spent on advertising, housing, food, etc, by the candidates and the media not over a few weeks, but over an entire year in the state of Iowa. Iowa’s GNP probably doubles 1 year out of every 4, so they will fight any effort to move them out of that spot. But a primary with an actual result at the end of the night, where a much larger number of 90% white people came and voted and went home and actually recorded their choice after all those corn dogs, would be nice.