Special Election in PA-18th, Dem Leading in Polls in District Trump Won by 20

With one week to go rumor has it that the GOP has already written this congressional special election off.  Oh the Kochs and other corporate enablers are pouring money in, and Trump is supposed to show up on Saturday, but he may smell defeat and cancel.  In any case, the GOP talks a big game but has pulled back to only a token effort. “Pro-Life” GOP Congressman Tim Murphy had to resign for encouraging his pregnant lover to get an abortion.  We still don’t know where Murphy’s wife stood on the abortion issue.

Democratic former prosecutor Conor Lamb has proven to be a terrific candidate and Rick Saccone has been a saccone of shit.

Up until now Saccone has lead narrowly in polls which has not given anybody on the GOP side comfort, the way Dems have been turning out for these special election affairs all around the country.  Now with a week to go, Lamb has the narrow polling lead and that means another Dem pickup is very likely.

But it’s probably worth nothing that Emerson, the pollster showing Lamb in the lead, conducted six polls of the Alabama U.S. Senate special election and had Roy Moore leading in all of them. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis shows Emerson as having a slightly larger than one percent pro-Republican “house bias.”

PA has to rejigger its entire map before the November election, so hard to know what this will mean in November, but Lamb has been such an attractive candidate it’s hard for me to imagine him being thrown into a diminished situation in November.  I predict he keeps that seat and narrows the Dems goal to take the House to only needing to flip 23 seats.

 

 

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